For the first time in years, your paycheck is winning a race you probably didn't know it was running.

Since 2020, U.S. home prices have climbed 55.5%. Wages, meanwhile, are up 31.2%. That's still a real gap. But it's smaller than it used to be, and the direction matters. Back in June 2022, at the peak of the pandemic boom, that gap was 30.8 percentage points. Today it's down to roughly 24.

Here's the part that actually matters for your wallet: for the last 13 months, wage growth has out-earned home price growth every single month. Not by a lot. But every month, paychecks have grown faster than home values have.

National home prices are up just 0.7% year over year right now while wages are up 3.4%, and inflation is running around 4.2%. So your raise is beating mortgage payment growth, at least on paper.

The places feeling this the most are the Sun Belt areas that overheated hardest during the pandemic, places like Austin, Dallas, and Cape Coral, which are now seeing outright price pullbacks. That's the market working off the froth that built up between 2020 and 2022.

Here in Utah, prices have obviously gone up quite a bit the past several years. But thankfully, housing affordability is improving here as well. In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics count data, Salt Lake County wage growth was up 4.8% in the 4th quarter of 2025, higher than any other county in Utah, and faster than the national wage average. Compare that to the average Salt Lake County home sales price of $657K, which is up exactly 0% from a year ago, and you've got the same healing pattern showing up locally. There are many cases where paychecks are growing faster than home prices here in Utah, although it does depend on the neighborhood. Some areas have continued to stay in high demand with low supply, but directionally we’re seeing a lot of new construction and sellers adding supply to the market while demand is holding steady.

This isn't a crash, but it isn’t a boom either. It's the slow, boring kind of correction that our market needs to heal and slowly address affordability.

Your income has been growing faster than the price of the house you're trying to buy. That doesn't fix affordability overnight, but it chips away at it slowly. Pair that with builder incentives still knocking a meaningful chunk off your effective rate, and the math today looks better than it has in years.

The risk isn't that you're too early. It's that this window depends on rates staying roughly where they are. If rates jump, this dynamic flips fast.

Curious what this actually means for your price range? Reply with what you're looking for and I'll send you a no-pressure breakdown of what's realistic right now, current rates, incentives, and all.

Here's the headline you want to remember: home prices are still rising in most areas. They're just rising at a healthier pace after years of high price growth. If your purchased your home before 2022, chances are you have a good chunk of equity in your home and it's not going anywhere.

What's changed is the buyer on the other side of the table. They have a healthier paycheck relative to the price of your home than they did two years ago, which means the buyer pool is more stable. That being said, stable buyers are picky buyers. With how many choices they have to choose from, they'll skip right past anything priced high compared to other similar homes.

This is exactly the environment where pricing strategy separates listings that sell in weeks from listings that sit for months and end up chasing the market down. If your first instinct is to price for what the market did in 2022, that's the mistake that costs sellers the most right now.

Thinking about listing this summer? Let's talk before you settle on a number. I'll pull current comparables for your neighborhood and give you a straight read on where to start.

Here to serve,

P.S. Want a custom read on your own street? Reply with your address and I'll send back a free breakdown of recent sales, current pricing trends, and what your home would likely fetch in today's market.

P.P.S. If you know someone wondering whether now's a good time to buy or sell, forward this their way. The headlines always make it seem worse than it is, and this could be the news a friend needs to hear as to why they might consider jumping into the market now while they have the opportunity to get a good deal and negotiate.