New Census data just dropped, and it's revealing something important about why our housing market feels the way it does right now.

While states like South Carolina, Idaho, and North Carolina are leading the nation in attracting new residents (on a per-capita basis), the massive migration waves we saw during the pandemic have officially cooled off. Texas and Florida are still gaining people, but it's nothing like the flood of 2021-2022.

Here's what sets Utah apart: while Texas and Florida added more total people (391,000 and 200,000 respectively), they're a lot more dependent on migration to grow. Florida actually has more deaths than births each year—without migration, its population would shrink.

According to the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, 57% of Utah's growth in 2025 came from natural increase—more babies being born than people dying. We're the only top-growth state where this is true.

Texas saw domestic migration drop from 222,000 in 2022 to just 67,000 in 2025—a 70% decline. Florida's collapsed from 311,000 to 23,000—a 93% drop. Utah's net migration has also moderated significantly from pandemic peaks, but here's the difference: the majority of our growth comes from natural increase. The inverse is true for migration-dependent states.

Bottom line: Utah's housing demand is fundamentally different. We're serving real, organic long-term population growth that continues regardless of whether mortgage rates are 3% or 7%. This creates long-term sustainable demand that boom-bust markets can't match.

This "stuck in place" phenomenon won't last forever. As rates and prices stabilize, and wages increase, pent-up demand will unlock. But Utah's demographic foundation provides something rare: stability and predictability. We're building for families who are already here and the next generation coming up while also having positive net migration.

For buyers, this makes Utah a solid long-term investment. For sellers who price realistically, it means you're selling into sustainable demand, not a temporary frenzy that could evaporate.

Success in today's market requires understanding these fundamentals. Utah offers something special: a current window of buyer opportunity in a market with strong long-term fundamentals.

Ready to Navigate This Market?

If you're thinking about making a move in 2026, let's talk strategy. I specialize in helping sellers position their properties for success—and helping buyers capitalize on this unique moment. Simply reply to this email or give me a call. If you’re reading this, I would be honored to work with you.

Here to serve,

P.S. Market conditions can change quickly. If you've been waiting for the "right time" to make a move, let's talk about whether that time might be now—before everyone else figures it out too.