Last week I shared why Utah County might be the best place in America to own real estate right now. Click here to read that if you missed it. 👈 This week, I want to put some real numbers behind that story.

You may have seen some headlines lately claiming Utah home prices will hit $1 million by 2030. A piece from KUTV cited a projection of $958,000 by 2030, and Cache Valley Daily ran a similar story predicting $1.1 million by the same year.

The problem is both projections were using aggressive trend extrapolation, like only using the past 5 years of price trends and assuming that continues, which is crazy since the last 5 years includes the pandemic boom with record low interest rates. So let's set the clickbait aside and look at what the real numbers say.

According to the Federal Finance Housing Administration (FFHA), Utah home prices have appreciated 596% over 33 years. Work out the math and that comes to an average annual appreciation rate of about 6% per year, sustained over more than three decades.

The median Utah home price today sits around $525,000-$550,000. Here is what two honest scenarios look like:

At Utah's historical average of 6% annual appreciation, that home crosses $1,000,000 by approximately 2037 — about 11 years from now.

At an even more conservative 3% annual appreciation, that same home crosses $1,000,000 by approximately 2047 — about 21 years from now.

The honest answer is that nobody knows which scenario plays out. In fact, if you’ve been reading my emails, you know the market has genuinely been catching its breath since the pandemic surge with pretty mild appreciation the past several years. But even in the conservative 3% scenario, Utah homes double in value within about two decades. And the long-term fundamentals that drove that 6% average for 33 years are still firmly in place: fastest GDP growth in the nation, highest inflation-adjusted household income in the country, and a population boom centered squarely in Utah County, which is projected to add 771,700 new residents between now and 2065.

Here is actually some good news. First-time buyers here tend to be younger than the national average, which means Utah's next generation of homeowners is still very much in the game. The average homebuyer age in Provo-Orem area is 27 years, which is far below the national average of 40 years old. This is partly due to Utah having the youngest workforce in the nation and high household incomes.

But the window to buy at today's prices before the next wave of demand hits will not stay open forever. Right now, you have something buyers in 2021 did not have: leverage. Inventory is up, homes are sitting longer, and sellers are willing to negotiate. The buyers who purchased in 2020 for $380,000 are now sitting on homes worth $550,000. The buyers who act today at $550,000 could be sitting on $650,000 or more by 2030, without a single dramatic spike required.

If your adult child is renting right now, the math is pretty straightforward. At Utah's historical appreciation rate, today's $550,000 home is worth roughly $985,000 in 2036. A down payment contribution today is not just financial help right now, it is potentially a $400,000 head start before they turn 40.

Utah's young buyers have an advantage over their peers in most of the country. The question is whether they’re able to use it.

Forget the clickbait projections. Utah's own 33-year history tells a clear story. At the rate this state has actually appreciated, today's median home doubles in value within about 11 years. The fundamentals that drove that are not going anywhere.

Ready to talk through your specific situation? Whether you are buying for the first time, helping one of your kids get started, or wondering whether now is the right time to sell, reply to this email or give me a call. Let's build a plan around the real numbers.

Here to serve,

P.S. Market conditions can change quickly. If you've been waiting for the "right time" to make a move, let's talk about whether that time might be now—before everyone else figures it out too.