As we close the books on 2025, it's worth reflecting on what we just experienced. Last year marked three consecutive years of historically low home sales—the weakest stretch since 1995. Many buyers stayed on the sidelines as mortgage rates hovered above 6%, while sellers remained locked into their low rates from years past.

But here's the good news: 2026 is shaping up differently.

ResiClub recently surveyed top economists from 24 major research groups to forecast where the housing market is headed this year. After reviewing their predictions, I want to share what this means for you—whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or simply wondering what your home is worth.

The consensus? We're entering a transitional year. Not a crash, not a boom—just a market gradually finding its footing after years of disruption.

Home Prices: Expect modest growth of +1.43% nationally in 2026. That's a far cry from the double-digit appreciation we saw during the pandemic, but it's stable. For Utah homeowners, this means your equity continues building, just at a slower, more sustainable pace.

Mortgage Rates: The 21 forecasts average 6.18% for 2026—essentially where we are today. If you've been waiting for rates to drop dramatically, this data suggests it's time to adjust expectations (keep in mind these projections do not account for mortgage rate buy-downs that would allow for an even lower rate).

The best news for buyers? Inventory is expected to rise +9.9% this year. That means more choices, and less competition.

Home sales are forecasted to increase modestly to 4.28 million (up from 4.06 million in 2025), but we're still below normal market activity. This creates opportunities:

The key is getting pre-approved now so you’re ready and working with someone who knows how to negotiate in this shifting market.

Here's what sellers need to understand: inventory is rising, and buyer expectations have changed.

Zillow and Moody's have differing views on Utah County—Zillow forecasts +1.6% price growth while Moody's predicts -3.6%. Based on recent trends, the truth likely falls closer to Zillow's prediction, meaning we're looking at a flat to slightly positive market overall. But here's the nuance: some zip codes will end the year with modest gains while others see modest declines. So if you’re curious about a specific zip code, respond to this email with your zip code, or give me a call.

What does that mean for you? Pricing and presentation matter more than ever. With appreciation slowing dramatically from the double-digit pandemic gains, there's no room for "testing the market" with an inflated price.

The homes selling quickly and for top dollar share three traits:

The days of overpricing and waiting for multiple offers are behind us. But sellers who approach this strategically—with the right price, condition, and marketing—are still seeing strong results and often multiple offers.

Single-family housing starts are projected at 965,000 this year—essentially flat with 2025. Builders are offering significant incentives including mortgage rate buy-downs to compete with resale homes.

If you're selling, this is your competition. If you're buying, this is your opportunity to explore new construction deals alongside resale options.

2026 won't be dramatic, but it will be different. We're moving from a cold market to one with more movement, more closings, more choices, and more negotiation.

For buyers: Don't wait for perfect conditions that may never arrive. Good deals exist right now for those who know where to look.

For sellers: The market rewards preparation and realistic pricing. Homes that show well and are priced right will still command strong offers.

The housing market is finding its balance. The question is: will you be ready to take advantage?

Ready to Make Your Move in 2026?

Whether you're buying or selling, having someone who understands these market shifts makes all the difference. If you’re thinking about moving and still considering your options, simply give me a call or respond to this email. Let's discuss your specific situation and create a strategy that works.

Here to serve,

P.S. Market conditions can change quickly. If you've been waiting for the "right time" to make a move, let's talk about whether that time might be now—before everyone else figures it out too.