Any two different people will give you a different outlook on how the housing market is doing. Part of the reason for that is because real estate, unlike the stock market, is extremely local. Even so much that a single zip code could perform wildly different from a neighboring zip code. Additionally, your source of data is not centralized, and highly variable depending on your data provider, how the data was collected, and the metrics being used (like median sales price vs average sales price, sales volume, list to sold price ratio, total transactions, and so much more).

That being said, the goal of today’s newsletter is to break down one national number and show how it’s masking a much more interesting story underneath, varying wildly between the largest metros in the US. Let's break it down.

Nationally, home prices are up just 1.1% year over year, which is basically flat. In fact, technically prices have been falling several years in a row once you adjust for overall inflation in the economy. But we’ll ignore that for today’s article and just focus on non-inflation adjusted numbers, since inflation itself has so many variables and is always moving.

It's easy to read that 1.1% year over year increase and assume the whole country is stuck in neutral.

But zoom into the 300 largest housing markets in America and a very different picture shows up. 68 of those markets are seeing prices fall year over year. The other 232 are still seeing gains.

Most of the softening is showing up in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, especially in metros that saw the steepest price run-ups during the pandemic boom. Places like Austin, TX and Tampa, FL are still working through that correction. Builders in those areas have leaned heavily on price cuts and incentives to keep new homes moving, which pulls resale prices down right along with them.

Much of the Northeast and Midwest didn’t see the same pandemic run-up, so they've never needed the same correction. Prices there are still climbing, just at a much calmer pace than a few years back.

Again, this varies wildly depending on your zip code, But if we’re generalizing, Utah County metro area, is one of the 232 markets still rising. According to the Zillow Home Value Index through June 2026, Provo-Orem area is up 1.9% year over year. That’s a a modest gain, but nothing crazy. In fact, it’s much lower than the historical norm for Utah County.

Salt Lake City area is up 1.3%, Ogden is up 2.2%, Logan is up 2.9%, and St. George is down -1.1%.

Most of Utah is still seeing modest gains, not the kind of market where prices are dropping under you. But builders sitting on unsold inventory are still often flexible on price and incentives, and it's worth asking before you assume a listing price is firm, and same goes for existing homes. It’s become completely normal over the past several years for buyers to ask for closing costs to be paid by the seller, interest rate buy-downs, and sometimes price cuts. Though, it depends on the location and how competitively it’s priced.

Want to know what's actually happening in your price range? Reply and I'll pull the real numbers for where you're looking, no pressure.

Utah is holding onto modest gains, which is good news if you're selling any time soon. But pricing off yesterday’s comps is still the fastest way to sit unsold. Buyers aren’t only looking at your home. They’re looking at all comparable homes in the area, and making a decision on if it’s even worth seeing based on the competition. So a realistic list price built on current comps will move faster than a listing priced on hopefully thinking.

Thinking about listing soon? Let's talk before you settle on a number. I'll pull current data for your neighborhood and give you a full strategic pricing analysis tailored to your home.

Here to serve,

P.S. Curious what your home is actually worth in today's market? Reply with your address and I'll send you a free, no-pressure breakdown.