Back in 2023, one housing analyst made a prediction: Naples, Florida and Sevierville, Tennessee still had room to fall, even after both markets had already cooled off a little. That call turned out to be right. Three years later, both towns have taken real hits, some pockets down more than 20% from their 2022 peaks.
Utah had its own version of this story, in our own backyard. Park City and Summit County boomed just as quickly as Naples and Sevierville did, and corrected almost just as quickly too. However, looking back to their 2022 peaks from today, Park City home values have remained much more durable. Here’s what I mean:
The Boom That Broke Two Markets
Naples and Sevierville are both similar in being luxury vacation/second home markets, but both have very different vibes (other than being in different states). Naples is right off Florida's Gulf Coast and Sevierville is built around the Smoky Mountains. Both overheated quickly in the pandemic boom.
Between December 2019 and June 2022, the average U.S. home price rose about 42%. Naples rose 74%. Sevierville rose 79%.
Park City and the rest of Summit County had a similar outcome. From March 2020 to its June 2022 peak, Summit County home values rose 76.8%, right in the same range as Naples and Sevierville.
**It's worth noting we’re using Summit County's data as a proxy for Park City since the housing data is more accessible on a county level, which gives us the most accurate read on Park City as it makes up the larger part of Summit County population and real estate wise.
Fast forward to today, and Sevierville home prices are down 12.9% from their 2022 peak, and Naples is down 11.8%. Some neighboring markets got hit even harder, with Cape Coral down 19% from its peak, and Punta Gorda down nearly 25%.
In fact, here’s a real example from the Sevierville area; a Gatlinburg log cabin sold for $1.65 million in August 2023. The new owner tried to flip it in 2025 for $1.85 million. After sitting on the market and failing to sell, it's now listed at $1.55 million, about 6% below what the seller paid two years ago.
What's Driving the Correction
A few things pushed these markets from "hot" to "still correcting":
The migration wave slowed down. Naples saw over 10,000 new residents move in during 2020-2021. By 2024-2025, that flipped to a net loss of people leaving. Likely due to people moving away from a work from home lifestyle. Fewer buyers moving in from out of state means local incomes have to support home prices on their own, which can put downward pressure on prices when they overheat too quickly from out of state purchases.
Insurance and HOA costs spiked. Florida homeowners have seen insurance premiums climb roughly 30% over the past three years, on top of many new building safety assessments hitting older condos.
New construction added competition. As we’ve seen in Utah, builders have continued building through the correction and used price cuts and rate buy-downs to keep selling, which pulled some buyers away from resale homes and pushed existing home inventory even higher.
Park City Corrected Just as Hard.
Here's why it bounced back
Here’s where Park City diverges from the other two vacation markets. By June 2023, Summit County home values had fallen 11.7% from their 2022 peak, almost identical to where Naples sits today.
But instead of staying down, Park City recovered. The correction eased to -7.6% by June 2024, then -6.6% by June 2025, and by June 2026 it had narrowed to just -3.4% below peak. Summit County home values today sit at 70.7% above their March 2020 level, barely off the 76.8% peak.
Naples and Sevierville haven't seen that same recovery. As of the same month, they're still sitting at -11.8% and -12.9% from peak, roughly where Park City was three years ago.
There could be a lot of reasons for Park City’s rebound. Whether it be Utah’s continued population growth from both natural births and domestic migration, or continued overall stronger demand from out of state buyers (but it sure ain’t the result of our Ski resorts getting snow 😅). But lets face it, Summit/Heber county area is one of the most beautiful places on earth.
What This Means If You're Selling
If you bought in Park City or Summit County before the 2022 peak, you're likely close to whole again, or already there. That's a very different conversation than what sellers in Naples or Sevierville are having right now. The steep correction is behind us, but pricing still needs to be realistic.
What This Means If You're Buying
The silver lining in a market that never fully corrected is stability. You're not trying to time a falling market or guess whether today's price will look like you overpaid in a year. Utah's fundamentals, tighter supply and steadier migration, are exactly why prices held. That's worth factoring in if you've been waiting on the sidelines for a crash that, at least so far, hasn't shown up here.
Big decisions are always easier with the right person in your corner. Whether you're deciding on a sale, wondering what your home is worth in today's market, or just want a second opinion before you make a move, I'm here to help.
Here to serve,
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P.S. Curious what your home would sell for in today's market? Reply with your address and I'll put together a custom analysis, no obligation.
