On Friday the average 30 year mortgage rate hit 7.12%. That is the first time it has crossed 7% since May 2025, and a full point higher than the 5.99% we saw back in February. Six months later and it costs $350 more per month to get a $500K mortgage.

Today we're covering why the market feels stuck, what the math looks like on a home here in Utah County, and a cool local program that lets some homeowners sidestep this whole issue. If you're planning to buy or sell anytime in the next year, this one is for you.

The rate you see on billboards is not the rate most people pay. The average rate on every mortgage currently outstanding in America is 4.4%.

Most homeowners locked in years ago. That 4.4% figure only creeps up as old loans get paid off, refinanced, or sold, which happens slowly over time. So while new buyers face 7%, most home owners are sitting more than two and a half points below today’s rates.

A buyer purchasing a typical home in the U.S. today with 10% down lands around $3,010 a month including taxes and insurance. Whereas, the typical homeowner with an existing mortgage pays $2,053 and the typical renter pays $1,962.

So the cost of moving, whether from a rental or from a home you already own, is roughly $957 more per month (average numbers across the US), every single month. That switching cost is the single biggest reason existing home sales are still near historic lows four years after rates spiked.

The problem is nothing really fixes this quickly. It takes some mix of rising incomes, lower rates, and/or lower prices. Which is most likely to be resolved through a slow, multi-year transition period rather than a sudden change.

Take a $550,000 home in Utah County with 10% down.

At February's rate, principal and interest (not including insurance and taxes) ran about $2,965/month. At this week's rate, the same house is about $3,333/month. That is roughly $368 a month more for the exact same home.

Now compare that to a Utah homeowner who bought in 2020 or 2021 at 3%. On the same loan size, they are paying around $2,087 before taxes and insurance. The gap between what they are paying today and what they would have to pay for the same house today is $1,200 a month. This is why so many homeowners have chosen to stay put, which puts downward pressure on inventory levels, which keeps prices higher.

That being said, there are plenty of ways to buy a home with an interest rate in the 4-5% range right now. I wrote all about how buyers are doing this in last weeks email, but you can click here if you missed it. One of the things I mentioned in last weeks email is UCCU’s special rate program. Basically, If your current mortgage is held by UCCU, they are offering existing members a new 30 year fixed loan at just 2% above your current rate. That works for buying a new home, a cash out refinance, or construction.

That means a homeowner sitting at 2.875% could move or pull equity at 4.875%, well under today's 7%. So if you have a mortgage with UCCU, reply to this email and I’ll connect you with my contact at UCCU to see if you would qualify.

A 7% rate is not a reason to stop looking. It is a reason to be precise. Fewer buyers are active when rates jump, which means less competition on the homes that are listed, and sellers who need to move become more flexible on price and credits. The buyers who win in this market are the ones who know their real monthly number before they start touring, not after.

Want to see what a home actually costs you per month at today's rate? Reply with your price range and I'll run it for you.

If you have a low rate, the switching cost might be high.But that doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Sellers who are downsizing, relocating for work, or carrying a lot of equity can often move without taking on a bigger payment than they have now. It just takes using a strategy unique to your situation. On the sale side, the homes that sell well right now are the ones priced for the buyer who has to stomach 7%, not the same buyers from Febraury.

Not sure whether your move pencils out? Reply with your address and I'll put together a custom market analysis that shows your current equity and what your next payment could look like.

The 7% headline is real, but it’s not truly representative of what most home owners are paying today. Even new home buyers are often getting rates much lower in the 4-6% range with all the incentives available to buyers right now. If you want to know where you land, I'm always happy to walk through it.

Here to serve,

P.S. If you know someone sitting on a 3% rate and wondering whether they are stuck, forward this to them. They probably have more options than they think.