A new report from ResiClub just dropped, and the numbers paint a really clear picture of what's happening with home prices across the country right now.

Of the nation's 300 largest metro area housing markets, 99 of them are posting year-over-year home price declines. That's a third of the country.

Nationally, home prices are up just +0.4% year over year. To put that in perspective, a year ago that number was +2.1%. The market has cooled significantly.

But here's the thing. That number has actually stabilized over the past eight months. Earlier in 2025, the number of markets seeing declines was climbing fast. It peaked around 110 metros in the summer, and since then it's held steady right around 100. ResiClub expects that number to start shrinking in the months ahead.

So the US housing market is not accelerating into some kind of crash. We're in a cooling phase that's starting to find its floor.

What really stands out in this data is how different things look depending on where you live.

Home prices in Hartford, Connecticut are +21.2% above their 2022 peak. Meanwhile, Austin, Texas is sitting -27.9% below its 2022 peak. That's a nearly 50-point spread between two major cities.

The pattern is pretty consistent. Markets where inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels (most of the Northeast and Midwest) are still seeing modest appreciation. Markets where inventory has surged past 2019 levels (Sun Belt and Mountain West) are the ones feeling the pressure.

And a big reason for softness in most of these areas is new construction. Builders have been aggressively competing for buyers with rate buy-downs, closing cost credits, and price cuts. That pulls demand away from the resale market, which pushes resale inventory even higher, putting even more downward pressure on prices. It's a cycle that's been playing out for about two years now.

Here's where it gets interesting for us locally.

Utah often gets lumped in with the broader Mountain West markets. And on the surface, that makes sense. Utah is one of several states where active inventory is back above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Colorado, Idaho, Arizona, and Texas are on that same list.

But when you look at actual home price performance, most of Utah's major metros are still posting positive year-over-year numbers overall. Salt Lake County, Utah County, Ogden-Clearfield areas, and Logan are all showing gains. They're modest (in the 1.8-3.8% range depending on the area), but they're positive.

Compare that to Colorado, where Denver metro prices are -3.2% year over year.

Utah's economy is more diversified. Tech, healthcare, logistics, and ongoing population growth along the Wasatch Front give us a broader base of demand. Additionally, Utah has continued to have one of the best economies in the nation with the lowest poverty level of any other state, a young working base, upward career mobility, and much more.

All those reasons are a big part of why home prices are holding up better than a lot of our Mountain West neighbors, even though we're dealing with many of the same inventory dynamics.

The one exception is St. George:

St. George is the only major Utah metro area that's posting year-over-year price declines right now, but it’s pretty minor at just -0.7% right now.

Why? The same factors pressuring other Sun Belt markets. St. George saw enormous price gains during the pandemic boom, attracting out-of-state buyers from California and elsewhere. Once that migration wave slowed and rates spiked, home affordability got stretched beyond what local incomes could support. Add in a wave of new construction, and you've got a market that's been working through a correction for a couple of years now.

The silver lining for St. George is that the correction appears to be stabilizing. Forecasts project a modest recovery through the back half of 2026. But it's a reminder that even within Utah, there are very different stories playing out.

These metro-level numbers are helpful for understanding the big picture. But in practice, what I'm seeing working with clients across Utah is that the numbers vary dramatically depending on your specific zip code and property type.

Some of the sellers I'm meeting with have homes that have continued to appreciate consistently over the past several years. These tend to be in established neighborhoods with limited new construction, good school boundaries, and steady demand. The metros might show "modest" gains, but for these homeowners, things have been solid.

Others are in areas where values have bounced up and down over the past couple years but mostly stayed flat. These are often areas where inventory has been building but hasn't completely overwhelmed demand.

And then there are pockets, particularly in areas with heavy new construction, where prices have seen consistent declines over the past several years. Condos have been hit especially hard. When builders are right down the street offering brand new units with rate buy-downs and design incentives, it's tough for resale to compete.

That's the reality of this market. The state average might say +1.4%. But your home might be up 5%, flat, or down 8% depending on where you sit. The only way to know is to look at the actual comparable homes and do a supply/demand audit in your specific area.

If you've been waiting on the sidelines, this data should give you some confidence. You're not buying into a market that's running away from you. National prices are nearly flat. Utah prices are growing slowly. And in many cases, you actually have the ability to negotiate and get a great deal.

The builders are still competing hard for your business. Lennar spent an average of $62,700 per home on incentives last year, up from $17,300 in 2022. That kind of pressure trickles down to the resale market too, where sellers are increasingly willing to contribute to rate buy-downs and closing costs.

If you know where to look and how to structure the deal, the effective rate you're paying can be well below the published number. I'm seeing buyers lock in rates 1.5 to 2+ points below the headline rate when incentives are stacked correctly.

The biggest takeaway from this data for sellers? Pricing strategy is everything.

In a market where national prices are basically flat and a third of the country is declining, there is zero room for aspirational pricing. The homes that sit on the market for 90+ days are almost always priced for a different market than the one we're in.

The good news is that if you're in Utah and you've owned your home for more than a few years, your equity position is likely strong. And fewer sellers are listing right now because of the lock-in effect (not wanting to give up a low mortgage rate), which means less competition for the homes that do hit the market.

But you have to price it right from day one. I track every expired and failed listing in Utah, and the pattern is consistent: the homes that fail to sell often aren't in bad locations or bad condition. They're just priced wrong. In this market, the right price on day one is worth more than a price reduction on day 60.

If you're thinking about selling, let's look at the real data for your specific zip code, not just the state average, and build a strategy around what's actually happening in your neighborhood.

Here to serve,

P.S. Want to know where your home actually stands? Not the state average. Not the metro number. Your specific neighborhood. Reply with your address and I'll send you a custom market analysis showing your home's current value, your equity position, and what's happening with prices in your zip code. Absolutely no strings attached.