$93,061. That's the annual household income now needed to purchase a typical home in the U.S., according to a new analysis from Zillow. In January of 2020, that number was just $52,000, which is a 79% jump in six years.

During the same period, average weekly earnings for U.S. workers have only risen about 31%. The gap between what people earn and what it costs to purchase a home is real.

But here's the good news: that number is actually coming down.

The income needed to buy peaked at nearly $99,000 in January 2025. It has since dropped about $6,000 to that $93K figure. That might not sound like a lot, but it represents the first meaningful improvement in affordability since mortgage rates began increasing rapidly in 2022. Now, mortgage rates are sitting roughly 1.5 to 2 percentage points below their October 2023 peak, and income has continued to tick upward. The math is slowly starting to work in buyers' favor again.

Utah's story is a little different from the national picture.

The median Utah home price is sitting around $535,000, which is well above the national median. By Zillow’s standards, you need about $125,555 in household income to comfortably afford a typical mortgage here. Utah's median household income is around $98,336.

But there are a few things working in our favor that a lot of people overlook.

First, Utah's income growth has been outpacing the national average, thanks to the tech sector, healthcare, logistics, and the broader economic engine here.

Second, mortgage rates in Utah tend to run slightly below the national average due to strong lender competition in the state.

Third, Zillow’s methodology for calculating income needed is often much more conservative than what a lender would actually approve you for, and is not accounting for any seller paid concessions, or rate buy-downs.

And fourth, Utah home prices have historically appreciated at roughly 6% per year over the long run (one of the highest rates of any state, according to FHFA data).

That long-term trajectory means buying in Utah, even when it feels like a stretch, has historically been one of the best wealth-building decisions a family can make.

And here’s the thing… there’s nothing stopping a first time home buyer from purchasing a home under the median home price, of which there are plenty to be found on the market right now.

The affordability squeeze is real. I'm not going to sugarcoat that. But the trend line is pointing in a better direction for the first time in years.

Here's what I'm telling my clients right now.

The window is actually more favorable than it has been in a while. You have more inventory to choose from than at any point since the pandemic. Sellers are more willing to negotiate. And that $6,000 drop in required income nationally? It's showing up locally too, through slightly lower rates, seller concessions on closing costs, and rate buy-downs that can meaningfully reduce your monthly payment.

If you've been waiting for things to "get better" before you buy, this is what better looks like. It's not going to show up as some dramatic moment like mortgage rates dropping to 2%. It shows up as gradual shifts in the numbers that quietly work in your favor over time.

Here’s my honest advice: don’t wait for a perfect number on mortgage rates. It’s near impossible to time the market, and trying to do so could cost you tens of thousands of dollars (or hundreds of thousands if you’ve been waiting since before the pandemic). Your time in the market matters more than timing the market. Buy your next home with a long-term perspective, not expecting to sell in the next several years, and your future self will thank you.

And here’s the thing… if we do see mortgage rates come down significantly in the future, refinancing to a lower mortgage rate (thereby lowering your monthly payment) is always an option once you have enough equity.

This data explains something you may have already felt: the buyer pool over the past few years has been smaller than it was during the pandemic boom. When it takes nearly $100K in income just to qualify for a typical purchase, a lot of would-be buyers simply can't make the jump. And many existing homeowners who would love to sell and move up can't stomach trading their 3% mortgage for a 6% mortgage.

But that's starting to shift. Affordability improving, even modestly, means more qualified buyers entering the market this spring. That's good news for sellers.

However, more buyers also means more sellers are getting confident enough to list. Inventory is rising. In Utah specifically, you're competing with more homes on the market than you would have been even a year ago.

So here's what I'm telling seller clients: the sellers who are winning right now are the ones who price correctly from day one and present their home well. Homes that come to market overpriced and sit for 60+ days lose negotiating power fast. Buyers today are informed. They're running the numbers. And they'll skip right past a listing that doesn't make financial sense.

If your home failed to sell in the past, or if you're thinking of listing this spring, this is the kind of market where strategy matters more than ever.

The affordability picture in real estate has been rough for years. A 79% jump in the income needed to buy is a staggering number. But for the first time since 2022, the trend is moving in the right direction. Rates are lower, incomes are increasing, and the gap is slowly closing.

Whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on your home's value, this matters. The market isn't waiting for a headline moment to shift. It's shifting right now, one data point at a time.

If you want to talk through what this looks like for your specific situation, just reply to this email. I'm happy to run the numbers for your neighborhood and give you an honest read.

Here to serve,

P.S. Not sure if now is the right time to make a move? Reply with your address and I'll send you a custom breakdown of what your home is worth today, and put you in touch with my trusted lender to see what income requirements would look like for your price range. It never hurts to see what your options actually are. No pressure, just transparency tailored to your specific situation.